Juan Cole Advises Barack Obama

Juan Cole has an excellent – and friendly – critique of Sen. Obama’s Op-Ed in the today’s New York Times. Most interesting is the portion of the critique that deals with Afghanistan, which Prof. Cole describes as, “far more unwinnable even than Iraq.”

The overall pessimism of Prof. Cole’s post is striking. It reminds me of my reaction, in the days following September 11, when it became clear that the United States would invade Afghanistan. My conception at the time was of a Soviet-style invasion which struck me as folly. The initial success of our Afghan incursion, relying on Special Forces, air power, and Afghan allies, convinced me for a time that the United States had an honest chance at success – success being the establishment of an Afghan state under the control of a US-friendly central government. As time went on and Afghanistan became an afterthought, garnering too little of every category of resource needed to ensure American success, I fell victim to this notion – that Prof. Cole rightly debunks – that the United States could be successful in Afghanistan so long as more American/NATO troops and resources are applied to the problem.

And this is the real critique offered by Prof. Cole of Sen. Obama. Sen. Obama writes that there are real differences between himself and Sen. McCain on the war in Iraq, and the exploration of those differences should figure prominently in this campaign rather than exchanging “false charges about flip-flops and surrender.” While this may be true, it does not get to the heart of what’s wrong with this campaign season, nor will exploring the differences between McCain and Obama’s positions provide this nation with policy and direction it so desperately needs. The war in Iraq like so many of the issues facing our country is not a binary issue – it is not that simple, nor are there solutions of equal merit being forwarded neatly by the Right and the Left. Afghanistan, like Iraq, is a muddle and to present it as something so easily solved by adding two or three combat brigades to the mix is a drastic and perhaps dangerous oversimplification.

I was struck by Sen. Obama’s inclusion of Afghanistan in the list of threats we face. I could not make sense of it as Afghanistan as a nation-state shows wholly no ability to hurt the United States. That said, if this Op-Ed is truly representative of Sen. Obama’s mindset and the type of policy we can expect from his camp – much like the nonsense that comes from Sen. McCain’s camp – then perhaps it was an apt inclusion and I should echo Prof. Cole: Beware.

The challenges we face as a nation are grave. Some are even existential. For our nation to overcome them perhaps we don’t need lip service being paid to new kinds of politics, perhaps we need a very old politics marked by nuance and wisdom. I fear instead we look forward to four months of sound bite volleys.